Introduction

Recent polling shows a sharp split in former President Donald Trump’s support among America’s two largest Christian constituencies. While born‑again Protestants have grown more favorable toward Trump, Catholic voters have moved in the opposite direction. The data highlight an emerging religious‑political polarization that could shape upcoming elections.

Rising Support Among Born‑Again Protestants

Five Marquette Law School polls tracked Trump’s approval among born‑again Protestants from January through July 2026. Approval rose steadily from 56 percent in January to 61 percent in July, moving the net approval margin from +12 to +22 points. This 10‑point gain occurred even as the president’s overall national rating slipped slightly, underscoring the stability of the evangelical base. By contrast, mainline Protestants held a flat 47 percent approval throughout the period, indicating that the increase is specific to the more theologically conservative segment.

Declining Approval Among Catholics

Catholic support fell dramatically. In January, 54 percent of Catholic respondents approved of Trump; by July the figure had dropped to 45 percent. The most pronounced decline happened between April and May, when approval slid from 53 percent to 45 percent, pushing the net approval from +8 to –10 points. The Catholic net swing of 18 points far exceeds the modest national shift, revealing a distinct backlash within this group.

Context of the Catholic Decline

The drop coincided with a public feud between Trump and Pope Leo XIV over immigration policy and the United States’ war with Iran. The pope urged peace and compassion for migrants, while Trump criticized the pontiff’s stance and labeled the pope “weak on crime.” Although both leaders later downplayed the dispute, the tension likely reinforced negative perceptions among Catholic voters, who traditionally respect papal authority.

Political Implications of the Divide

Catholics comprise roughly 20 percent of the electorate and represented 22 percent of Trump’s 2024 coalition. Even modest shifts within this bloc can swing close races, especially in swing districts where margins are thin. Moreover, Catholic voters are more politically divided than evangelicals: white Catholics leaned toward Trump, while Latino Catholics favored the Democratic ticket. Born‑again Protestants, by contrast, continue to deliver overwhelming majorities for Trump, with 81 percent supporting him in 2024.

The diverging trends suggest that Republican strategists will need to balance outreach to a steadfast evangelical base while attempting to stem losses among Catholics. Democrats, meanwhile, may view the Catholic dip as an opening to make inroads in districts where religious affiliation historically buffered Republican advantage.

Conclusion

As 2026 unfolds, the growing gap—now 32 points—between born‑again Protestants and Catholics in their view of Donald Trump signals deepening religious‑political fault lines. While evangelical support remains a reliable pillar for the former president, the Catholic decline reflects both policy disagreements and broader cultural tensions. How parties respond to these shifts will likely influence the shape of American politics in the coming years.